Micky Mellon’s sides usually thrive once the January transfer window has closed.
In the 2018/19, new boys David Perkins, Kieron Morris, Ben Pringle and Sid Nelson sparked an upturn in form that culminated in promotion.
The following season, the acquisitions of Peter Clarke, James Vaughan and Alex Woodyard brought an uptick in form that likely would have seen Rovers drag themselves clear of the relegation zone before COVID-19 curtailed the season.
But the 2021/22 season bucked the trend in the most disappointing fashion.
As of January 31, 2022, Rovers were sitting pretty in second position, seven points clear of Exeter City in eighth.
Fast-forward to May and Mellon’s side ended the season in ninth, two points outside the play-off positions, while Exeter celebrated automatic promotion to League One.
So where did it all go wrong?
1. Rovers forgot how to keep clean sheets on the road
One major pitfall is that Rovers’ ability to keep clean sheets on the road deserted them after February 1st.
Mellon faced criticism for being too cautious on the road. But the logic seems sound: Keep a clean sheet and you’re guaranteed to head home with at least one point.
The problem is his side forgot how to shut out opposition sides.
Between August and January, Rovers kept clean sheets in seven of their 13 games. In other words, they shut out the opposition more often than they conceded.
But in the ten games after February 1st, they conceded in nine consecutive games, failing to keep a clean sheet until the 1-0 win at Leyton Orient on the final day of the season, when the play-offs already looked a distant pipe dream.
2. While Tranmere’s home form remained steady after February 1, their away form nosedived
At the end of January, Rovers were picking up an average of 2.14 points from home games and 1.38 from away games.
By the end of the season, their home record had remained steady at 2.22 points per game.
Their away record, however, plummeted, culminating in an average of 1.04 points-per-game.
Had Rovers maintained their modest pre-February away record over the course of the season, they would have picked up an extra eight points – enough to achieve an automatic promotion position.
3. Rovers conceded too many costly late goals
Tranmere had the second meanest defence in League Two.
The problem was not the number of goals they leaked, but when they were conceded.
Rovers conceded 50 percent more goals in the second half of games than in the first.
Most significantly, analysis shows they had a particularly bad habit of conceding in the final ten minutes of games.
Those goals tend to prove particularly costly because so little time is left to fight back.
And so it proved in 2021/22.
The eight goals conceded in the final ten minutes of games effectively cost Rovers eight points. An extra eight points would have been enought to achieve automatic promotion.
This habit fitted the wider trend of the season: It was a bigger problem away from home and it became worse from February onwards.
In fact, seven of the eight goals conceded in the final ten minutes occured in games played between February and May.
4. Rovers paid the price for failing to pick off the division’s worst teams away from home
We’ve established that Tranmere’s wretched away form was a major barrier to success.
But perhaps the most baffling – and costly – aspect was their inability to pick up points when visiting the worst sides in the division.
Rovers averaged just one point from each of their games against the eight worst sides in the division.
Bottom club Scunthorpe United managed just four wins all season as they meakly succumbed to relegation. To nobody’s surprise, one of those came when Tranmere visited Glanford Park.